“Children…well favoured, and skillful in all wisdom, and cunning in knowledge, and understanding science, and such as had ability in them to stand in the
king’s palace” (Daniel 1:4a).
This spring, 3.85 million students are projected to graduate from high school in the United States. This is likely the highest number of graduates in U.S. history. However, in 2026, the number is likely to drop and continue to drop to 3.4 million by 2041. This is referred to as The Great Cliff.
These projections are based on birth rates, which fell in 2007 during the Great Recession and never recovered, dropping annually to a low of 3.6 million births.
Not everyone is in decline. Although 38 states are declining, 12 states will see an increase in high school graduates through 2041. Many of these states are where Free Will Baptists are strongest (see chart below). Further, every racial or ethnic group is not in decline. This year, 944,000 Hispanic students will graduate. That rate is expected to increase 16% or 1.1 million students by 2041. Additionally, the numbers of those from Hispanic descent is exploding among Free Will Baptists.
Results of the Cooperative Election Survey indicate 28% of people who identified as Free Will Baptist are the parent or guardian of a child under 18. Only two other denominations report a higher percentage. [1] Of course, if you’ve attended a National Convention, you already know Free Will Baptists have children. The Great Cliff indicates our nation needs them.
Needs must be met. Having fewer graduates translates into having fewer young workers to enter the workforce. It also impacts college attendance. Currently, 62% of high school graduates pursue post-secondary education. In 2031, 72% of all jobs are projected to require post-secondary education training or credentials, and 42% will require a degree. Improved efficiency is required in health, education, and STEM disciplines (science, technology, engineering, and math). Current labor market projections indicate future jobs will require more degree holders than the nation is on pace to produce. [2]
What an opportunity for Free Will Baptists! This generation has an opportunity to reach our nation by following in the footsteps of heroes like Daniel, Hananiah, Mishael, and Azariah. When I read Daniel (especially 1:4), I sense those young men excelled in the STEM disciplines. They had opportunity to minister in Babylon because they could do things others could not.
Some of the least churched places in America are being hit hardest by The Great Cliff. Incidentally, these areas also have the greatest need for workers with post-secondary training. As many decry The Great Cliff, may we see it as an opportunity to take the church to people who would not otherwise be interested. God is at work and has prepared us for this moment.
