You wouldn’t expect an article titled, “When Will Half Your Membership Be Dead?” to be particularly encouraging. However, for Free Will Baptists, data recently published by researcher Dr. Ryan Burge offers a surprising and hopeful perspective. When compared to the broader landscape of American Protestantism, our denomination stands out as a unique anomaly, possessing what Burge describes as a rare “demographic runway.” [1]
(See the “Age Distributions of the Top 20 Denominations” chart below.)
While most mainline denominations face a “code red” scenario with modal ages (the most common age of a member) between 67 and 69, Free Will Baptists hold a significantly lower modal age of 53. Furthermore, while most groups have seen sharp declines in young adult participation over the last 15 years, our denomination has shown remarkable generational resilience, nearly doubling the percentage of young adults found in other groups.
This data suggests we have approximately a 15-year window of vibrant, stable membership before the coming demographic “lull” fully impacts our pews. We must not waste this time. To seize this opportunity, we must focus on three strategic areas:
Prioritize Youth and Family Ministry
To capitalize on the young people God has already placed in our care, we must elevate the importance of the nursery, Sunday School, parent training, and camps. We should double down on the denominational programs that have helped our youth, such as CTS, Truth and Peace, ETEAM, and CMP, and support new programs that emerge.
(See the “When Will Today's Adults Be Gone?” chart below.)
Leverage This Opportunity
Our younger modal age provides a vital bridge to the next generation of Free Will Baptists. We must aggressively train the 30- to 44-year-old members in our churches today, discipling and equipping them to accept the mantle of leadership before the current generation ages out. This mid-level leadership will become the backbone of our denominational stability in the decades to come.
Prepare to Support the Broader Church
Denominational survival is not for our sake alone. We must see beyond our “borders.” If we remain demographically stable, we can provide multi-generational support to other sister groups as they struggle through the coming storm. Our own internal data is encouraging: 85% of youth who responded to our program survey of national denominational programs continue to attend a Free Will Baptist church as adults. We must prepare them to care for our own denomination and turn their attention to caring for the broader church-at-large.
This “demographic runway” is a wonderful gift from God, but it has an expiration date. By focusing on retention, discipleship, and leadership development now, we ensure we are not just surviving but thriving — truly proving we are better together as we weather the storm for the sake of the Kingdom.
